For the sixth time in T&T’s post-independence history, there has been a transfer of power from one political grouping to another. The five other changes took place in 1986, 1991, 1995, 2001 and 2010. Last Monday, the PNM returned to power.
It was apparent that there was a late swing among the undecided voters who broke in favour of the PNM moreso than for the People’s Partnership. This could be seen in the fact that the Solution by Simulation poll in early August was showing a 21-20 seat lead and greater popularity for the People’s Partnership. The last Capsu poll, that was done over the period August 21-24, also showed that the People’s Partnership was ahead at that time.
While Capsu did not do any polling in the first week of September, H.H.B. and Associates for the Guardian, Solution by Simulation for the Express and Nacta, on its own, were able to go into the field at that time. There were differing findings among them which ranged from a narrow PP win (Nacta) to an inconclusive prediction (Solution by Simulation), to a narrow PNM victory (H.H.B. and Associates). The closest that any of those polling organisations who polled the field in that last week came to a correct seat allocation was H.H.B. and Associates who projected 22-19 for the PNM and confessed to not polling Moruga-Tableland because of resource constraints.
Louis Bertrand and his colleagues at H.H.B. and Associates must be congratulated for coming the closest to the actual result among those who did polling in the field in that final week.
The official results have only recently been released. My initial finding is that there was a clear shift towards the PNM by the undecided swing voters identified in all of the polls.
Last week, I explained my formula for calculating the outer limit of marginality and I indicated that the results of the 2015 general election will provide the data set for the next general election. On my formula, the outer limit of marginality was calculated at 3,370 as the margin between first and second in order to classify a seat as marginal.
Based on the official results that have been published, it would appear that there are now nine marginal constituencies based on the difference between first and second places that fell inside of 3,370.
These are:
1. Moruga/Tableland (533)
2. Barataria/San Juan (540)
3. Chaguanas East (1,424)
4. Pointe-a-Pierre (1,506)
5. St Joseph (1,633)
6. La Horquetta/Talparo (2,822)
7. Mayaro (2,894)
8. Cumuto/Manzanilla (3,179)
9. San Fernando West (3,310)
Three constituencies ended up on the cusp of marginality by falling just outside my own outer limit for marginality of 3,370 based on the first over the second place candidates.
These were:
1. Tunapuna (3,615)
2. Point Fortin (3,743)
3. Toco/Sangre Grande (3,904)
Based on these outcomes, the perennial marginal constituency of Tunapuna can now be deemed to have lost its marginal status coming out of this general election, while Point Fortin and Toco/Sangre Grande will remain clustered with it.
The formal transfer of power that commenced last Wednesday with the swearing-in ceremony for the new Prime Minister Dr Rowley, his Attorney General Faris Al-Rawi, and his Minister of National Security Edmund Dillon was marred by a most unfortunate event that was clearly avoidable.
There is no way that the appointments of Al-Rawi and Dillon could have been valid if they took their oath of office before Prime Minister Rowley. Until such time as the Prime Minister took his oath, no other appointment could have been constitutionally valid.
There are some who have argued that the President (as a former High Court judge) ought to have known better, and others who have argued that the new Attorney General (as the principal legal adviser to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet) ought to have declined to take his oath before that of his Prime Minister.
Whichever it may be, it was embarrassing for both Al-Rawi and Dillon to be required to take their oaths a second time behind closed doors and to be issued with fresh instruments of appointment as neither of their appointments, in strict constitutional terms, were valid up until the second oath was taken. It was not a matter of protocol, but rather elementary constitutional law.
The second swearing-in ceremony saw Prime Minister Rowley adopt the formula of former prime minister Basdeo Panday by appointing two defeated candidates as senators. Clarence Rambharat (defeated in Mayaro) was appointed minister of Agriculture, Lands and Fisheries and Avinash Singh (defeated in Caroni Central) was appointed as his parliamentary secretary.
This was a fundamental departure from the PNM policy of not appointing defeated candidates to the Senate. Dr Eric Williams established it in 1976 when he refused to appoint Basil Pitt and Wilbert Winchester who lost, while George Chambers and Patrick Manning copied that policy. The PNM criticised Panday for this after the 2000 general election and then president Robinson delayed those appointments for 55 days, but Dr Rowley has now embraced the Panday model of appointing defeated candidates to the Parliament.